Thursday, April 17, 2014

Is the conflict in Ukraine the beginning of WWIII?

The conflict in the Ukraine has all the making of the beginning of WWIII; however, a close examination of the geopolitical situation may change your mind.  While it is true that the West has made commitments to Ukraine for its defense and Russia has made commitments to the Russian friendly government that preceded the coup, Ukraine will split resulting in the birth of a new independent country by the pro-Russian forces inside Ukraine.  If the people in the country are the cause of their own independence, then the U.S. as well as Russia would not be called upon to act evading a major conflict.

The situation in Ukraine is different than the one in Crimea.  Most of the citizens in Eastern Ukraine would prefer to establish their own independence and dump the Western friendly government in Kiev.  Putin understood Crimea and saw an opportunity to bring the Russian family back to the fold as evidenced by the 95% vote to rejoin Russia; however, in Eastern Ukraine, the Russians who want to be reunited with Russia are in the minority.

Putin is arguing that a military situation will not bring peace; rather, he is seeking a diplomatic solution.  The ethnic Russians in Eastern Ukraine are upset about the coup that shifted power from the Eastern (Russian) part of the country to the Western friendly part.  The Eastern Russians see the coup that resulted in a power change in Kiev as a hostile act and one they are not willing to accept.  Russia's military build up on the border was meant to discourage Ukraine from attempting to come into Crimea; however, the Russians in the Ukraine see it as an opportunity to split Ukraine in two and set up their own independent state.

Based on all the news reports, it appears there is a lot of propaganda.  The West is blowing the story out of proportion.  The arguments made by Putin appear to be reasonable in my opinion.  If Putin does have imperialist ambitions, we will see that shortly; however, I suspect that Putin has no desire for people to join Russia who don't want to be a part of Russia.  They are seeking to establish a culture rooted in Christianity and family by using the power of government to protect their culture from the immorality and emptiness of the West.

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